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CONTINA: Confidence Interval for Traffic Demand Prediction with Coverage Guarantee

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate short-term traffic demand prediction is critical for the operation of traffic systems. Besides point estimation, the confidence interval of the prediction is also of great importance. Many models for traffic operations, such as shared bike rebalancing and taxi dispatching, take into account the uncertainty of future demand and require confidence intervals as the input. However, existing methods for confidence interval modeling rely on strict assumptions, such as unchanging traffic patterns and correct model specifications, to guarantee enough coverage. Therefore, the confidence intervals provided could be invalid, especially in a changing traffic environment. To fill this gap, we propose an efficient method, CONTINA (Conformal Traffic Intervals with Adaptation) to provide interval predictions that can adapt to external changes. By collecting the errors of interval during deployment, the method can adjust the interval in the next step by widening it if the errors are too large or shortening it otherwise. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that the coverage of the confidence intervals provided by our method converges to the target coverage level. Experiments across four real-world datasets and prediction models demonstrate that the proposed method can provide valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths. Our method can help traffic management personnel develop a more reasonable and robust operation plan in practice. And we release the code, model and dataset in \href{ https://github.com/xiannanhuang/CONTINA/}{ Github}.


PC-Planner: Physics-Constrained Self-Supervised Learning for Robust Neural Motion Planning with Shape-Aware Distance Function

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion Planning (MP) is a critical challenge in robotics, especially pertinent with the burgeoning interest in embodied artificial intelligence. Traditional MP methods often struggle with high-dimensional complexities. Recently neural motion planners, particularly physics-informed neural planners based on the Eikonal equation, have been proposed to overcome the curse of dimensionality. However, these methods perform poorly in complex scenarios with shaped robots due to multiple solutions inherent in the Eikonal equation. To address these issues, this paper presents PC-Planner, a novel physics-constrained self-supervised learning framework for robot motion planning with various shapes in complex environments. To this end, we propose several physical constraints, including monotonic and optimal constraints, to stabilize the training process of the neural network with the Eikonal equation. Additionally, we introduce a novel shape-aware distance field that considers the robot's shape for efficient collision checking and Ground Truth (GT) speed computation. This field reduces the computational intensity, and facilitates adaptive motion planning at test time. Experiments in diverse scenarios with different robots demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method in efficiency and robustness for robot motion planning, particularly in complex environments.


LLM Evaluators Recognize and Favor Their Own Generations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Self-evaluation using large language models (LLMs) has proven valuable not only in benchmarking but also methods like reward modeling, constitutional AI, and self-refinement. But new biases are introduced due to the same LLM acting as both the evaluator and the evaluatee. One such bias is self-preference, where an LLM evaluator scores its own outputs higher than others' while human annotators consider them of equal quality. But do LLMs actually recognize their own outputs when they give those texts higher scores, or is it just a coincidence? In this paper, we investigate if self-recognition capability contributes to self-preference. We discover that, out of the box, LLMs such as GPT-4 and Llama 2 have non-trivial accuracy at distinguishing themselves from other LLMs and humans. By fine-tuning LLMs, we discover a linear correlation between self-recognition capability and the strength of self-preference bias; using controlled experiments, we show that the causal explanation resists straightforward confounders. We discuss how self-recognition can interfere with unbiased evaluations and AI safety more generally.


The Validity of Evaluation Results: Assessing Concurrence Across Compositionality Benchmarks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

NLP models have progressed drastically in recent years, according to numerous datasets proposed to evaluate performance. Questions remain, however, about how particular dataset design choices may impact the conclusions we draw about model capabilities. In this work, we investigate this question in the domain of compositional generalization. We examine the performance of six modeling approaches across 4 datasets, split according to 8 compositional splitting strategies, ranking models by 18 compositional generalization splits in total. Our results show that: i) the datasets, although all designed to evaluate compositional generalization, rank modeling approaches differently; ii) datasets generated by humans align better with each other than they with synthetic datasets, or than synthetic datasets among themselves; iii) generally, whether datasets are sampled from the same source is more predictive of the resulting model ranking than whether they maintain the same interpretation of compositionality; and iv) which lexical items are used in the data can strongly impact conclusions. Overall, our results demonstrate that much work remains to be done when it comes to assessing whether popular evaluation datasets measure what they intend to measure, and suggest that elucidating more rigorous standards for establishing the validity of evaluation sets could benefit the field.


An Algebra of Lightweight Ontologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper argues that certain ontology design problems are profitably addressed by treating ontologies as theories and by defining a set of operations that create new ontologies, including their constraints, out of other ontologies. The paper first shows how to use the operations in the context of ontology reuse, how to take advantage of the operations to compare different ontologies, or different versions of an ontology, and how the operations may help design mediated schemas in a bottom up fashion. The core of the paper discusses how to compute the operations for lightweight ontologies and addresses the question of minimizing the set of constraints of a lightweight ontology. Finally, the paper describes an implementation of the operations, as a Prot\'eg\'e plug-in.


Solving the subset-sum problem with a light-based device

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a special computational device which uses light rays for solving the subset-sum problem. The device has a graph-like representation and the light is traversing it by following the routes given by the connections between nodes. The nodes are connected by arcs in a special way which lets us to generate all possible subsets of the given set. To each arc we assign either a number from the given set or a predefined constant. When the light is passing through an arc it is delayed by the amount of time indicated by the number placed in that arc. At the destination node we will check if there is a ray whose total delay is equal to the target value of the subset sum problem (plus some constants).